With the Delta virus the UK has been the forward-looking indictor. "About 60% of hospitalizations from are not from the Delta variant are double-vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalizations from COVID are currently from unvaccinated people." This means 40% of hospitalizations today in the UK are from already vaccinated patients.

Reuters basically got it backwards because it was a mis-speak from the UK's Sir Patrick Vallance at a News briefing on July 19th, 2021.

This suggests the rise in the U.S. and the rest of the world in the Fall of 2021 will be rather epic. While AZ is likely inferior to mRNA vaccines, that 60-40 split is really important for how hospitalizations will play out in the rest of the world. New variants could also occur in late 2021 that could lead to a more dangerous 2022 for how the pandemic unfolds.

Post Freedom Day is a Big Test for how Delta Plays Out

The U.K. opening up on "Freedom Day" while it has the most official cases in the world per day is absurd, equally absurd as the U.S. declaring masks unnecessary recently.

Speaking at the briefing alongside Boris Johnson - who appeared remotely from Chequers where he is self-isolating - Sir Patrick said hospitalizations could rise to over 1,000 a day. The U.K. however has not experienced many deaths even as cases have increased in recent weeks. With far fewer deaths, lockdowns are perhaps unlikely to come about, however it's too soon to say. The weeks following "Freedom Day" will be the true reckoning.

When Does Delta Peak Amid ICU Burnout?

Meanwhile in the U.S. Delta cases are doubling much faster than they would have months ago, because Delta is 60% more transmissible than the previously dominant variant. Delta also has much more asymptomatic spread among young people where it feels commonly like a common cold.

That most regions of England now have more coronavirus patients in hospital than at any point since mid-March even without opening up completely yet, means the U.S. will be on a trajectory that burns out more Doctors and Nurses in the coming weeks. Many ICUs in the West will be chronically under-staffed in the Fall of 2021 and some will have to drastically lower their capacity. The story of medical care burn-out is only starting to come out as the pandemic continues longer than many anticipated.

Delta Will Drastically Impact U.S. Economic Activity

When healthcare systems break entirely, that's when covid-19 mortality really begins to rise and Delta has the potential to create that type of a scenario.

Most fully vaccinated people who get Covid delta infections are asymptomatic (according to the WHO), but this doesn't mean they could not later present with symptoms of long-Covid. Long-Covid or its costs have not been very well told by the mainstream media. Meanwhile, hospitalizations at scale even amid the double vaccinated could still occur in late 2021 and 2022. Even as the CDC and its leaders say otherwise, there is a lack of frank honesty.

The U.S. could have a far higher double-vaccinated hospitalizations rate due to the more reckless state by state regulations and freedoms. It's difficult to tell when cases would peak however. The three peaks last year were late November, mid December and Early January, with each peak subsequently higher. Could those have an economic breakdown of business as usual even in 2021 and heading into 2022? The stock market seems to think so.